Within-population variation in female mating preference affects the opportunity for sexual selection and the evolution of male traits, but things are not as simple as expected.

Females from the same population usually have phenotypic variation in their mating preferences. However, the effects of this within-population variation on the sexual selection acting on males are still unclear. We used individual-based models to explore how within-population variation in female preference (i.e. which male trait value is preferred) and preference strength (i.e. how strong the preference is) affects the opportunity for sexual selection (Is ) and the evolution of a sexually selected male trait. We found the highest Is values when females had high variation in preference and an open-ended preference function. The lowest Is occurred when the magnitude of variation in female preference and male trait value were the same and preference function was closed. Male trait exaggeration was higher when there was high within-population variation in preference and females had an open-ended preference function. Also, higher male trait variation was maintained by high variation in preference, but only for a closed preference function. Thus, we found that only within-population variation in female preference, not in preference strength, influences the opportunity for sexual selection and the evolution of sexually selected male traits. Moreover, we found that the shape of the preference function (i.e. open-ended or closed) and the magnitude of within-population variation in female preference compared to male trait variation also influences the Is and consequently the evolution of male traits.

Harder, better, faster, stronger: Weapon size is more sexually dimorphic than weapon biomechanical components in two freshwater anomuran species.

Sexual selection influences the evolution of morphological traits that increase the likelihood of monopolizing scarce resources. When such traits are used during contests, they are termed weapons. Given that resources are typically linked to monopolizing mating partners, theory expects only males to bear weapons. In some species, however, females also bear weapons, although typically smaller than male weapons. Understanding why females bear smaller weapons can thus help us understand the selective pressures behind weapon evolution. However, most of our knowledge comes from studies on weapon size, while the biomechanics of weapons, such as the size of the muscles, efficiency, and shape are seldom studied. Our goal was to test if the theoretical expectations for weapon size sexual dimorphism also occur for weapon biomechanics using two aeglid crab species. Males of both species had larger claws which were also stronger than female claws. Male claws were also more efficient than females' claws (although we used only one species in this analysis). For weapon shape, though, only one species differed in the mean claw shape. Regarding scaling differences, in both species, male claws had higher size scaling than females, while only one species had a higher shape scaling. However, male weapons did not have higher scaling regarding strength and efficiency than females. Thus, males apparently allocate more resources in weapons than females, but once allocated, muscle and efficiency follow a similar developmental pathway in both sexes. Taken together, our results show that sexual dimorphism in weapons involves more than differences in size. Shape differences are especially intriguing because we cannot fully understand its causes. Yet, we highlight that such subtle differences can only be detected by measuring and analysing weapon shape and biomechanical components. Only then we might better understand how weapons are forged.

Structural vulnerability of hospitals, cemeteries, and crematoriums of the city of São Paulo to COVID-19 / Vulnerabilidade estrutural dos hospitais e cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo à COVID-19

This is the first report by the COVID19 Observatory - Group: Contagion Networks analyzing mortality data from the city of São Paulo. In this report, we integrated mortality data for the city of São Paulo between 04/02/2020 and 04/28/2020, with information on the flow of victims between hospitals and cemeteries/crematoriums. We included in our analyzes both confirmed and suspected deaths from COVID-19. The main objectives of this report were: (1) to describe the structure of the flow of victims between locations and (2) to suggest changes in the current flow based on geographical distances in order to avoid a potential overload of the mortuary system. We suggest that the city of São Paulo should plan for a potential overload of the mortuary system (that is, the number of burials), based on the presented results. Thus, our results reinforce the need to adopt specific planning for the management of the extraordinary number of victims of this pandemic. Our predictions are based on the structural analysis of the COVID-19 victim flow network, which shows several hotspots with high vulnerability to system overload. These hotspots concentrate with either the greatest number of deaths (hospital) or of burials (cemetery or crematorium), and therefore have high potential to become overwhelmed by receiving many bodies due to the increase in victims of the pandemic. We recommend special attention to be given to localities on the east side of São Paulo, which has both the most vulnerable hospitals in the city, and also houses cemeteries and crematoriums that have a central role in the network and / or are vulnerable. Based on our optimization analysis, we suggest logistical changes in the current flow of bodies from hospitals to cemeteries/crematoriums so as not to overload the funeral system and minimize transportation costs. In this sense, our results are potentially useful for improving the operational planning of the Municipality of São Paulo, ratifying or rectifying actions underway at the municipal level.

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio analisando os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo. Neste relatório, integramos os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo entre os dias 02/04/2020 e 28/04/2020 com informações sobre o fluxo de vítimas entre os hospitais e os cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo. Incluímos em nossas análises óbitos confirmados e óbitos suspeitos de COVID-19. Os principais objetivos deste relatório são: (1) descrever a estrutura do fluxo de vítimas entre localidades e (2) sugerir mudanças no fluxo com base em distâncias geográficas de maneira a evitar uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário. Sugere-se à prefeitura da cidade de São Paulo que seja realizado um planejamento para uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário (isto é, número de sepultamentos) da cidade de São Paulo com base nos resultados apresentados. Desta forma, nossos resultados reforçam a necessidade de ser adotado planejamento específico para a gestão dos casos extraordinários visualizados no contexto da pandemia. Esta previsão está baseada na análise estrutural da rede de fluxos de vítimas da COVID-19, que indica a concentração de vários locais com alta vulnerabilidade à sobrecarga do sistema. Tais locais concentram a maior quantidade de óbitos (hospitais) ou a maior concentração de sepultamentos (cemitérios ou crematórios) e tem portanto alto potencial de tornarem-se sobrecarregados por receberem muitos corpos devido ao aumento de vítimas da pandemia. Recomenda-se especial atenção à localidades da zona leste de São Paulo, que apresenta os hospitais mais vulneráveis da cidade e abriga cemitérios e crematórios que possuem papel central na rede e/ou encontram-se vulneráveis. Com base em nossa análise de otimização, sugerimos mudanças logísticas no atual fluxo de corpos de hospitais para cemitérios/crematórios de modo a não sobrecarregar o sistema funerário e minimizar os custos de transporte. Neste sentido, nossos resultados são potencialmente úteis ao aperfeiçoamento do planejamento operacional da Prefeitura Municipal de São Paulo, ratificando ou retificando ações em curso no âmbito municipal.

Vulnerability of micro-regions within Northeast Brazil to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic / Vulnerabilidade das microrregiões do Nordeste brasileiro à pandemia do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2)

Report from "Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa" for the Northeast Region of Brazil. We combined data on confirmed cases of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) as reported by public authorities by 02/04 and structural analyses of road transport networks within and between the nine States of Northeast Brazil to predict the potential influence of the 187 micro-regions on the geographic propagation of the pandemic.  

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID1920 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa para a região Nordeste do Brasil. Combinamos dados de casos confirmados do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) para o Nordeste, conforme disponível até o dia 02/04, com análises estruturais da rede de rotas rodoviárias intra e interestaduais para estimarmos a vulnerabilidade e potencial influência das microrregiões nordestinas na propagação da doença.

Males, but not females, perform strategic mate searching movements between host plants in a leaf beetle with scramble competition polygyny.

Mate searching is assumed to be performed mostly by males, but when females benefit from multiple mating or are under risk of failing to mate, they may also perform mate searching. This is especially important in scramble competition polygynies, in which mate searching is the main mechanism of mate competition. Typically, more mobile individuals are expected to achieve higher mating success because mobility increases their probability of finding mates. If we assume individual movements are mainly explained by mate searching in scramble competition polygynies, we can investigate searching strategies by asking when individuals should leave their location and where they should go. We hypothesize that individuals will leave their locations when mating opportunities are scarce and will seek spatially close sites with better mating opportunities. We tested these hypotheses for males and females of Leptinotarsa undecimlineata, a leaf beetle with scramble competition polygyny in which both sexes are promiscuous. Individuals mate and feed exclusively on Solanum plants, and thus, individual movements can be described as switches between plants. Females were less likely than males to leave isolated plants, and both males and females moved preferentially to neighboring plants. Males were more likely to leave when the local number of females was low, and the number of males was high. They moved to plants with more females, a behavior consistent with a mate searching strategy. Females were more likely to move to plants with fewer males and many females, a behavior consistent with male harassment avoidance. Strategic movement is widely considered in foraging context, but seldom in a mate searching context. Considering that selection to minimize searching costs, maximize mating success, and minimize harassment may be ubiquitous in nature, we argue that strategic movements by mate searching individuals are likely to occur in many species.

Mate sampling influences the intensity of sexual selection and the evolution of costly sexual ornaments.

Mate choice includes three steps: (1) a choosing individual encounters potential mates, (2) assesses and processes information about them, and (3) makes a mate decision. During mate searching females can access only a sample of males in the mating pool and need to choose their mates based on limited information. Thus, mate sampling may influence sexual selection promoted by mate choice because it constrains female choice. Using individual-based simulations, we found that both female choosiness and mate sampling influenced the variance in mating success among males and thus the intensity of sexual selection. So that sexual selection is most intense when females are strongly choosy and can sample many males. Moreover, in evolutionary simulations, the rate of evolutionary change and the final size of male ornament increase with increasing mate sampling. However, under stronger natural selection, evolutionary change is slower and leads to smaller ornaments. Empirical data on the potential for sexual selection (Is) for several animal species show a positive correlation between the intensity of sexual selection and an index of mate sampling based on behavioral and ecological traits. Based on the results of our simulations, we predict that males of highly mobile species with long-range sexual signal transmission, which allow females to assess many males, will show greater variance in mating success and will be more ornamented than their relatives not exhibiting these features.